SIXTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP on TROPICAL CYCLONES Special Focus Topic 3a : Sharing experiences in operational consensus forecasting. Rapporteur: Andrew Burton Regional Manager, Severe Weather Services Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Regional Office

Operational use of consensus track forecasting methods has become relatively widespread in the last four years. This paper gives an overview of current consensus track forecasting methods, summarises recent research regarding consensus track forecasting methods, and looks at implementation challenges faced by operational centers. We consider the relative merits and degree of operational use of single-model and multi-model ensembles, weighted and non-weighted consensus methods, selective and non-selective methods and use of a vector motion average in place of a geographical position average. The theoretical basis for optimising consensus forecast skill is considered in relation to operational issues that may create roadblocks to realising that skill. A number of recommendations are made to improve uptake of consensus methods amongst operational centers, particularly those with fewer resources, and to optimise track forecasting skill in operational centers already using consensus methods.